Analysis and reporting on average deal size trend for managed service providers.
Analysis and reporting on average deal size trend for managed service providers.
The data covers the full scope of Autotask PSA records relevant to this analysis, broken down by the key dimensions your team needs for day-to-day decisions and client reporting.
Who should use this: Sales leads, MSP owners, and account managers tracking pipeline health
How often: Weekly for pipeline reviews, monthly for forecasting, quarterly for strategy
Analysis and reporting on average deal size trend for managed service providers.
Average closed-won deal value per quarter, Q4 2024 through Q1 2026. The portfolio has grown 56.0% in 18 months.
EVALUATE
VAR _CurrentQ =
CALCULATE(
AVERAGE(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[is_won] = TRUE(),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] >= DATE(2026, 1, 1),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] < DATE(2026, 4, 1)
)
VAR _PriorQ =
CALCULATE(
AVERAGE(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[is_won] = TRUE(),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] >= DATE(2025, 10, 1),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] < DATE(2026, 1, 1)
)
VAR _Largest =
CALCULATE(
MAX(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[is_won] = TRUE(),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] >= DATE(2025, 4, 1)
)
VAR _Median =
CALCULATE(
MEDIAN(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[is_won] = TRUE(),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] >= DATE(2026, 1, 1),
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] < DATE(2026, 4, 1)
)
RETURN
ROW(
"Current Avg Deal Size", _CurrentQ,
"QoQ Change", DIVIDE(_CurrentQ - _PriorQ, _PriorQ),
"Largest Deal (12M)", _Largest,
"Median Deal Size", _Median
)Six consecutive quarters of growth. The average closed-won deal has climbed from $18,200 in Q4 2024 to $28,400 in Q1 2026, a 56.0% increase with no negative quarters in between. The acceleration is worth noting: Q1 2026 posted 11.2% QoQ growth, the strongest quarter in the sequence. The gap between the mean ($28,400) and the median ($19,800) signals that a handful of large contracts are pulling the average up, but the underlying trend is real. Deal count rose from 18 to 28 per quarter over the same period, so this is not a story of fewer, bigger deals replacing volume. Both metrics are moving in the right direction.
Average deal size per client over the trailing 12 months. Bar width normalized to NovaTech Inc at $52,400.
The spread tells the story. NovaTech Inc closes deals at $52,400 on average. Vertex Solutions averages $7,800. That is a 6.7x gap across the same sales team selling the same portfolio of services. The difference is almost entirely explained by service mix: NovaTech buys bundled managed security and compliance packages, while Vertex sticks to basic monitoring on six-month contracts. The top four clients (all above $28,000) account for $1,192,800 in trailing 12-month revenue and show double-digit YoY growth. The bottom four (all below $13,000) account for $251,600 and are trending flat or negative. Converting just two bottom-tier clients to managed security bundles would add roughly $120,000 in annual contract value.
EVALUATE
VAR _Trailing12M = TODAY() - 365
RETURN
SUMMARIZECOLUMNS(
BI_HubSpot_Deals[company_name],
FILTER(BI_HubSpot_Deals, BI_HubSpot_Deals[is_won] = TRUE() && BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] >= _Trailing12M),
"AvgDealSize", AVERAGE(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
"DealsClosed", COUNTROWS(BI_HubSpot_Deals),
"TotalRevenue", SUM(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount]),
"LargestDeal", MAX(BI_HubSpot_Deals[amount])
)
ORDER BY [AvgDealSize] DESCRevenue share by service category. Managed Security and Cloud Migration now account for 62% of closed-won revenue, up from 41% a year ago.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Deals | 115 |
| Total Pipeline | $354,349 |
| Avg Deal Size | $3,081 |
| Won Deals | 18 ($49,540) |
Managed Security is the growth engine. At $48,200 per deal, it is 3.3x the value of Basic Monitoring ($14,600) and carries the best win rate among premium categories at 52.1%. The sales cycle is 38 days, only 10 days slower than the 28-day Analytics cycle but worth 2x the revenue per close. Cloud Migration at $36,700 is the second-highest category but requires the second-longest sales cycle at 42 days. Basic Monitoring wins frequently (61.4% win rate) but at low values. It accounts for 22 of the 65 deals closed in the trailing 12 months but only 12% of revenue. One-Time Projects are the weakest category on every metric: $11,200 average, 28.3% win rate, and a 52-day cycle. The revenue mix shift from monitoring-heavy to security-heavy is the primary structural driver behind the 56% deal size growth.
EVALUATE ROW("TotalDeals", COUNTROWS('BI_HubSpot_Deals'), "TotalPipeline", SUM('BI_HubSpot_Deals'[amount]), "AvgDealSize", AVERAGE('BI_HubSpot_Deals'[amount]), "WonDeals", CALCULATE(COUNTROWS('BI_HubSpot_Deals'), 'BI_HubSpot_Deals'[deal_stage] = "closedwon"), "WonAmount", CALCULATE(SUM('BI_HubSpot_Deals'[amount]), 'BI_HubSpot_Deals'[deal_stage] = "closedwon"))Six deals worth $232,000 have had no logged activity for 14+ days. That is 21.4% of the $1.086M active pipeline.
| Quarter | Pipeline Value | Pipeline Growth | Deals Open | Stalled % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $624,000 | 32 | 14.2% | |
| Q1 2025 | $712,000 | 36 | 16.8% | |
| Q2 2025 | $786,000 | 38 | 12.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | $848,000 | 40 | 18.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | $932,000 | 42 | 19.1% | |
| Q1 2026 | $1,086,000 | 44 | 21.4% |
The pipeline has grown 74.0% over six quarters from $624K to $1.086M. That growth is healthy. The problem is that stalled deals as a percentage of total pipeline have also climbed, from 14.2% in Q4 2024 to 21.4% now. Three of the six stalled deals are stuck at Proposal Sent, which points to a follow-up cadence gap rather than a qualification problem. The Catalyst Ventures deal at $86,000 is 32 days silent. Historical conversion data shows that deals past 30 days without contact close at under 15%. Sarah Mitchell owns two of the six stalled deals ($60,000 combined), suggesting she needs support on proposal follow-through. Pipeline hygiene is the most urgent short-term issue in this portfolio.
Win rate and meeting volume per rep. Bars normalized to the top performer in each metric.
| Rep | Avg Deal Size | Open Deals | Meetings (30d) | Avg Close (days) | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Rodriguez | $34,200 | 10 | 32 | 24 | 48.2% |
| Sarah Mitchell | $29,800 | 8 | 24 | 31 | 42.8% |
| Lisa Chen | $22,400 | 7 | 20 | 36 | 36.2% |
| James van Dijk | $18,600 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 33.4% |
| Tom Bakker | $12,100 | 5 | 8 | 54 | 24.6% |
The correlation between meeting volume and deal size is close to linear across all five reps. Emma Rodriguez holds 32 meetings per month, averages $34,200 per deal, and closes in 24 days. Tom Bakker holds 8 meetings, averages $12,100, and takes 54 days to close. That is a 4x meeting gap producing a 2.8x deal size gap and a nearly 2x win rate difference (48.2% vs. 24.6%). James van Dijk is the other concern at 14 meetings and a 42-day close cycle. Both reps below the 20-meeting threshold have win rates under 34%. The data does not just suggest that more meetings help. It shows a consistent, quantifiable relationship between activity volume and revenue per deal.
The average deal size has grown 56.0% over six quarters to $28,400 in Q1 2026. That growth rate is strong for an MSP portfolio, but the gap between the mean ($28,400) and the median ($19,800) tells us the headline number is partially inflated by a small group of large contracts. Remove the top three NovaTech deals and the average falls to $21,600. The growth story is real, but it is more concentrated than the topline suggests.
Service mix is the strongest structural driver. Managed Security deals average $48,200, or 3.3x the Basic Monitoring average of $14,600. A year ago, Managed Security and Cloud Migration together accounted for 41% of closed-won revenue. That share has risen to 62%. This shift explains most of the deal size increase and suggests the trajectory is sustainable as long as the team keeps leading with security-first positioning. The one category to watch is Power BI / Analytics at $24,300 and 18% revenue share. It has the fastest sales cycle (28 days) and the highest deal volume (14 closes), which makes it a strong complement to the larger but slower security deals.
Client concentration is a risk. The top four clients generate 66.2% of trailing revenue. NovaTech alone accounts for $419,200. If NovaTech churned or reduced scope, the portfolio average would drop from $28,400 to roughly $22,100 overnight. The bottom four clients are all on basic monitoring or one-time project packages. Moving two of them to managed security bundles would add an estimated $120,000 in annual contract value and reduce concentration risk simultaneously.
Pipeline hygiene is the most urgent short-term issue. The $232,000 in stalled deals represents 21.4% of total pipeline. Three of those deals ($198,000 combined) are at Proposal Sent with 21+ days of silence. Historical conversion rates for deals past the 30-day inactivity mark fall below 15%. If those three deals are written down to realistic probabilities, the true pipeline coverage ratio drops from its current reported level. The stalled percentage has also been climbing quarter over quarter, from 14.2% in Q4 2024 to 21.4% now. That trend needs to reverse.
The gap between top and bottom performers is wider than expected. The bottom 20% scores more than 25 percentage points below the portfolio average, indicating structural issues that require targeted intervention.
Entities in the moderate risk category show a declining trend over the past quarter. Without intervention, 3-4 of these entities may shift to the high-risk category within 60 days.
The top 30% of the portfolio maintains stable performance above target, indicating current best practices are effective and can serve as a model for the rest.
1. Conduct a targeted review of all high-risk entities within 2 weeks. Document the root cause for each entity and create a remediation plan with clear deadlines and accountable owners.
2. Implement automated monitoring for the moderate-risk group. Set thresholds that trigger an alert when performance drops 5 percentage points below target, enabling early intervention before entities slip into high risk.
3. Schedule this report monthly as part of the QBR process. Use the trend data to verify that improvement initiatives are delivering measurable results across multiple quarters.
For mid-market MSPs selling managed services and security, $20,000-$35,000 per deal is a healthy range. Below $15,000 typically indicates reliance on basic monitoring or break-fix work. Above $40,000 suggests successful bundling of security, compliance, and cloud services. The $28,400 average in this portfolio sits solidly in the upper-mid range, with room to grow through the tiered upgrade path outlined in section 7.0.
The 43.4% gap between mean and median means a small number of large deals are pulling the average upward. NovaTech Inc alone averages $52,400 per deal across 8 closes. Remove the top three NovaTech contracts and the portfolio average drops to $21,600. The median gives a more accurate picture of the “typical” deal a rep closes. Both numbers are useful, but the median is the better planning metric for forecasting and quota-setting.
Sustained QoQ growth of 5-12% is strong for deal size. Below 3% suggests the portfolio is stagnating. Above 15% per quarter is likely driven by one or two large deals rather than structural improvement. The 8-11% range shown in this portfolio over six quarters is a healthy, sustainable pace that reflects real service mix improvement rather than outlier deals distorting the trend.
Bundle services into tiered packages rather than quoting individual line items. Lead with business outcomes (reduced breach risk, compliance readiness) rather than technical scope. The data in this report shows that Managed Security deals carry both the highest average size ($48,200) and a strong win rate (52.1%). Clients see the value in premium offerings when they are positioned around outcomes rather than priced per feature.
A 3:1 to 4:1 pipeline-to-quota ratio is the standard target. Below 2.5:1 means there is not enough pipeline coverage to absorb normal deal slippage and losses. Above 5:1 often signals pipeline bloat with stale or poorly qualified deals. With $1.086M in pipeline and 21.4% of it stalled, the effective healthy pipeline here is closer to $854K. True coverage may be lower than it appears on paper.
At 14 days with no activity, send an automated alert to the deal owner. At 21 days, escalate to the sales manager and require a documented re-engagement plan within 48 hours. At 30 days, reduce the deal probability by 50% in the forecast and schedule a direct call to the decision-maker. Deals that reach 45 days with no response should be moved to lost and freed from the active pipeline to keep reporting accurate.
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