Analysis and reporting on license growth vs deal pipeline for managed service providers.
Analysis and reporting on license growth vs deal pipeline for managed service providers.
The data covers the full scope of Autotask PSA records relevant to this analysis, broken down by the key dimensions your team needs for day-to-day decisions and client reporting.
Who should use this: Microsoft 365 administrators, security teams, and account managers
How often: Weekly for license management, monthly for adoption reviews, quarterly for optimization
Analysis and reporting on license growth vs deal pipeline for managed service providers.
Portfolio license growth breakdown across all managed tenants, with the top 6 growing clients ranked by percentage change.
EVALUATE
ADDCOLUMNS(
SUMMARIZECOLUMNS(
BI_Microsoft_365_Licenses[company_name],
"Current Licenses", CALCULATE(
COUNTROWS(BI_Microsoft_365_Licenses),
BI_Microsoft_365_Licenses[snapshot_month] = DATE(2026, 3, 1)
),
"Previous Licenses", CALCULATE(
COUNTROWS(BI_Microsoft_365_Licenses),
BI_Microsoft_365_Licenses[snapshot_month] = DATE(2025, 12, 1)
)
),
"Growth %", DIVIDE([Current Licenses] - [Previous Licenses], [Previous Licenses]),
"Net Change", [Current Licenses] - [Previous Licenses]
)
ORDER BY [Growth %] DESCCurrent HubSpot CRM deal pipeline by stage, from initial leads through to closed-won and closed-lost. Win rate from proposal stage: 52.9%.
EVALUATE
SUMMARIZECOLUMNS(
BI_HubSpot_Deals[deal_stage],
"Count", COUNTROWS(BI_HubSpot_Deals),
"Total Value", SUM(BI_HubSpot_Deals[value]),
"Avg Days in Stage", AVERAGE(BI_HubSpot_Deals[days_in_stage])
)
ORDER BY
SWITCH(
BI_HubSpot_Deals[deal_stage],
"Lead", 1, "Qualified", 2, "Proposal", 3,
"Negotiation", 4, "Won", 5, "Lost", 6
) ASCSix-month dual-axis view: license growth percentage (green line) overlaid on new deals created per month (teal bars). Both metrics trend upward in lockstep.
Both metrics show a consistent upward trajectory over six months. License growth climbed from 2.8% to 4.2% while new deals rose from 22 to 34 per month. The parallel movement is not coincidental. Clients adding licenses are signaling organic business growth, and that growth creates natural entry points for upsell and cross-sell conversations. The 0.71 correlation coefficient confirms this is a reliable pattern, not a one-off coincidence.
Deal mix by quarter showing the shift from new business toward upsell-driven revenue. Upsell deals now make up the majority of closed business.
The trend is clear: upsell deals are growing while new business holds steady. From Q3 2025 to Q1 2026, upsell deals increased from 12 to 18 (a 50% jump) while new business stayed flat at 16. This is a healthy sign. It means existing clients are expanding, and your sales team is capturing that expansion. License growth data is the early warning system that makes this possible -- when a client adds 35 Microsoft 365 licenses in a quarter, that is a buying signal your CRM should be tracking automatically.
EVALUATE
SUMMARIZECOLUMNS(
BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month],
BI_HubSpot_Deals[deal_type],
"Deals", COUNTROWS(BI_HubSpot_Deals),
"Revenue", SUM(BI_HubSpot_Deals[value])
)
ORDER BY BI_HubSpot_Deals[close_month] ASC,
BI_HubSpot_Deals[deal_type] ASCEight clients showing license changes alongside deal activity and revenue impact. Horizon MSP is flagged as the highest churn risk.
| Client | Licenses Q4 | Licenses Q1 | Growth | Deals Won | Deal Value | License Rev. Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex IT Solutions | 280 | 315 | +12.4% | 4 | $48K | +$4,200/yr |
| Summit Networks | 195 | 212 | +8.7% | 3 | $32K | +$2,040/yr |
| CloudGuard MSP | 162 | 172 | +6.2% | 3 | $28K | +$1,200/yr |
| Pinnacle Tech | 210 | 220 | +4.8% | 2 | $18K | +$1,200/yr |
| Redstone IT | 128 | 132 | +3.1% | 2 | $14K | +$480/yr |
| Cobalt Systems | 165 | 169 | +2.4% | 1 | $8K | +$480/yr |
| Vanguard Tech | 240 | 238 | -0.8% | 1 | $6K | -$240/yr |
| Horizon MSP | 85 | 78 | -8.2% | 0 | $0 | -$840/yr |
Horizon MSP lost 7 licenses (8.2% decline), has zero deals in the pipeline, and zero deals won this quarter. Combined with 3 open support escalations, this client shows multiple churn indicators. Schedule a retention call within the next two weeks.
The 0.71 correlation between license growth and deal creation has held steady over four consecutive quarters. That is a strong and reliable signal. Clients who add Microsoft 365 licenses are 3.2x more likely to close an upsell deal within the same quarter compared to clients with flat or declining license counts. This relationship gives the sales team a concrete, data-backed framework for prioritizing outreach.
Upsell now exceeds new business for the first time, making up 53% of Q1 2026 deals versus 47% new. This is a healthy sign of account expansion and suggests the client base is growing from within. The average upsell deal value ($12.4K) is smaller than new business ($16.2K), but upsell deals close 40% faster and carry a 73% win rate compared to 41% for new business. On a revenue-per-sales-hour basis, upsells are significantly more efficient.
Four clients show license shrinkage without corresponding deal activity. These are early churn signals. Horizon MSP is the most concerning case -- an 8.2% license decline paired with zero pipeline activity and three open support escalations. Vanguard Tech shows a smaller decline (0.8%) with minimal deal activity. Two other clients in the stable category are trending toward decline and bear watching next quarter.
Horizon MSP is the biggest risk in the portfolio. The 8.2% license decline, zero deals, and three open support escalations form a pattern that historically precedes client departures. In the last 12 months, two former clients showed this exact combination of signals before churning. The cost of losing Horizon MSP is roughly $10,200 in annual recurring revenue. A proactive retention effort now is far cheaper than replacement revenue later.
Five priorities based on the findings above, ordered by impact.
Horizon MSP shows all three churn indicators: license shrinkage (8.2%), zero deal pipeline, and open support escalations. Assign your account manager to schedule a discovery call focused on understanding their business trajectory. Do not lead with a sales pitch -- lead with the support escalations and offer to resolve them as a goodwill gesture. If the client is downsizing, negotiate a reduced-scope contract rather than losing them entirely.
Create a HubSpot workflow that triggers when any client's Microsoft 365 license count increases by 5% or more in a single month. Route these alerts to the assigned sales rep with context: current license count, growth percentage, and last deal activity. This turns passive data into an active sales signal. Based on the 0.71 correlation, roughly 7 out of 10 growth alerts will convert into qualified deal conversations.
These two clients lead the growth table at +12.4% and +8.7% respectively. Apex has already closed 4 deals worth $48K this quarter, and their license trajectory suggests they will continue expanding. Summit Networks has similar momentum. Both should receive dedicated QBR-style meetings this month focused on roadmap planning, security add-ons, and compliance packages.
Beyond Horizon MSP, three other clients are trending flat or slightly negative. Set up a monthly review cadence for these accounts. If any client drops below -3% license growth for two consecutive months, escalate to the account manager for a proactive touchpoint. Catching decline early costs almost nothing compared to re-acquiring lost revenue.
The shift to 53% upsell in Q1 2026 is a positive business health metric. A growing upsell share means lower customer acquisition costs, shorter sales cycles, and stronger retention. Include this ratio in monthly leadership reports alongside license growth trends to show the compounding effect of account expansion over time.
A correlation of 0.71 means there is a strong positive relationship between license growth and deal creation. When license counts go up, deal creation tends to go up in a predictable way. It does not mean one causes the other, but the relationship is consistent enough to use as a sales signal. In practical terms, about 50% of the variance in deal creation can be explained by license growth patterns.
Based on the data, license growth typically leads deal creation by 30 to 60 days. A client that adds licenses in January is most likely to enter a deal conversation in February or March. This lag gives your sales team a window to prepare personalized outreach before the client starts looking at competitors or handling the expansion themselves.
Stable license counts are not automatically a concern. Some clients are in maintenance mode and their headcount is not changing. The warning sign is when stability turns into a slow decline -- losing 1 or 2 licenses per month over several months. That pattern often precedes a larger reduction. Watch for two consecutive months of even minor decline as the trigger for a check-in call.
Microsoft 365 license data tells you what is happening inside the client's environment. HubSpot tells you what your sales team is doing about it. Combining them reveals blind spots: clients growing fast with no deals in pipeline (missed opportunities) or clients shrinking with no retention activity (churn risk). Neither data source alone tells the full story.
This report groups both under "upsell" for simplicity. In HubSpot terms, any deal tagged to an existing client counts as upsell regardless of whether it is a license expansion (true upsell) or a new service like security monitoring (cross-sell). The distinction matters for sales strategy but not for the core correlation analysis. Both deal types correlate similarly with license growth.
Connect Proxuma Power BI to your PSA, RMM, and M365 environment, use an MCP-compatible AI to ask questions, and generate custom reports - in minutes, not days.
See more reports Get started